با همکاری مشترک دانشگاه پیام نور و انجمن علمی مدیریت ورزشی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد همدان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، همدان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه تربیت‌بدنی و علوم ورزشی، واحد سنندج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سنندج، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه تربیت‌بدنی و علوم ورزشی، واحد سنندج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر با هدف سناریوپردازی آینده رسانه ­های ورزشی کشور انجام شد. روش مورداستفاده در این پژوهش برنامه ریزی مبتنی بر سناریو است که در هشت گام طراحی و پیاده شده است. روش گردآوری داده در این پژوهش کیفی و با استفاده از مصاحبه، پنل خبرگی و پیمایش دلفی است. 20 نفر از خبرگان دارای دانش تخصصی و یا تجربه عملی به‌عنوان اعضای گروه مشارکت­ کننده در پژوهش به‌صورت گلوله ­برفی انتخاب شدند. همچنین، از نرم‌افزارهای میک­مک و سناریو ویزارد برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده­ ها استفاده‌شده است. یافته ­های این پژوهش در دو بخش ارائه‌شده است. بخش اول شامل شناسایی و دسته ­بندی مؤلفه‌های کلیدی، پیش‌ران‌ها و عدم قطعیت ­های مرتبط است. پنج پیشران تغییر محتوای رسانه ­های ورزشی، به‌روز شدن محتوای رسانه­ های ورزشی بر اساس نیاز روز جامعه، نیازسنجی از جامعه در خصوص محتوای رسانه­ های ورزشی، آموزش نیروهای انسانی و متخصص برای رسانه ­های ورزشی توسط مراکز آموزشی و دانشگاهی و تدوین برنامه جامع توسعه کیفی رسانه ­های ورزشی، در این بخش تعیین ‌شده و روابط اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری میان مؤلفه‌ها تحلیل‌شده است. بخش دوم به شناسایی و توصیف سناریوهای محتمل و سازگار بر اساس پیشران­ ها و عدم قطعیت‌های ذی‌ربط، پرداخته است و مشخص گردید از بین دو سناریوی پیشنهادی، تنها یک سناریو در وضعیت امیدوارکننده وجود دارد (سناریوی شماره 1). سناریوی شماره 2 نیز در وضعیت بحرانی قرار دارد؛ یعنی با تغییر محتوا، به‌روز شدن محتوا، آموزش دادن به منابع انسانی و تدوین برنامه جامع رسانه­ های ورزشی، می­توان انتظار بهبود وضعیت رسانه ­های ورزشی در آینده را داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Scenario Planning of Iranian Sports Media

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Omrani 1
  • Mozafar Yektayar 2
  • Mozhgan Khodamoradpor 3

1 Ph.D. Student in Sports Management Department, Hamadan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamadan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran

چکیده [English]

The present study was conducted to forecast the future of the country's sports media through scenario planning. The methodology employed is scenario-based planning, which is structured and implemented in eight steps. Data collection was qualitative, utilizing interviews, expert panels, and Delphi surveys. Twenty experts with specialized knowledge or practical experience were purposively selected as participants through snowball sampling. Additionally, Micmac software and Scenario Wizard were used for data analysis.
The findings are presented in two parts. The first part involves identifying and categorizing key components, drivers, and related uncertainties. Five main drivers were identified: changes in sports media content, updating sports media content based on community needs, community needs assessment regarding sports media content, training of human resources and specialists in sports media by educational and academic centers, and the development of a comprehensive program for qualitative development of sports media. The relationships and interactions among these components were analyzed.
The second part describes possible and feasible scenarios based on the identified drivers and uncertainties. It was found that out of two proposed scenarios, only one (Scenario 1) is in a promising condition. Scenario 2, on the other hand, is in a critical state. The analysis suggests that by changing and updating content, training human resources, and developing a comprehensive sports media program, improvements in the future of sports media can be expected.
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کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Media Content
  • Planning
  • Needs Assessment
  • Education
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